Turkish lira Exchange rate forecasting using time series models

 

Marwan Abdul Hameed Ashour ¹ and Iman A.H. Al-Dahhan^2*

¹Prof. Dr., University of Baghdad, Iraq, dr_marwan2012 @yahoo.com

²Assist. Prof. Dr., University of Baghdad, Iraq, emanaldahhan@gmail.com

*Corresponding author

 

Abstract

Financial markets in any country in the world are one of the most important pillars of the economy. The global financial crisis and the current economic and political situation have impacted the regional and international financial markets. . To deal with such financial crises in the business markets, a model is essential to describe and address these phenomena which consider variations over time and characterize a suitable and effective model. The aim of this research is to construct a mathematical model for the time series of the Turkish lira compared to the US Dollar by the ARIMw model and to predict the next period, And to measure the accuracy and harmonization of the mode of prediction adopted using statistical error criteria.

Keywords: Time series models, Lira exchange rate prediction, financial markets, ARIMA models.