FORECASTING THE FUNCTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LANGUAGES IN RUSSIA: MAJORITY, MINORITY, DIASPORAS LANGUAGES

Vida Yu. Mikhalchenko¹, Elena A. Kondrashkina², Svetlana V. Kirilenko³*

¹Prof. Dr., Head Scientific Researcher, Institute of Linguistics, Russian Academy of Sciences, RUSSIA, vida-mi@mail.ru
²Senior Scientific Researcher, Candidate of Sciences (Philology), Institute of Linguistics, Russian Academy of Sciences, RUSSIA, e.kondrashkina@inbox.ru
³Scientific Researcher, Candidate of Sciences (Philology), Institute of Linguistics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Assoc. Prof., MIIGAiK State University, RUSSIA, svetlanavk@inbox.ru
*Corresponding Author

Abstract

One of the important tasks for sociolinguistics is to solve the problem of forecasting the future for different linguistic varieties and languages. Conceptual forecasting is important for planning the social language functions in the areas of organized communication of different linguistic communities.

In the Russian Federation there are three main types of linguistic communities: majority languages (speakers of more than 50,000 people – 32 linguistic communities); minority languages (speakers of less than 50,000 people – 54 linguistic communities), national minorities or diasporas, there are about 50 of them.

It should be noted that the current level of development of the social functions among the languages in these linguistic communities is very different. Majority languages are developing most intensively, although a negative shift is sometimes observed among them in a number of areas of communication compared to the Soviet period. Most minority languages have insufficient potential for further development, and the languages of Siberia and the Russian Far East are at most risk, these languages have a small ethnic community, i.e. the potential to expand in social functions is low.

Forecasting the future of the languages in the Russian Federation includes a number of sociolinguistic procedures: the identification of linguistic communities with speakers that use an ethnic language; study of ethnolinguistic conditions of their existence, including compactness or dispersion of living; language contacts of speakers of a language community, etc.

Based on the research material, it is possible to trace the trends in the development of linguistic communities over two or three decades, evaluate these trends by measuring the demographic and communicative power of a given language or languages. This makes it possible to formulate possible scenarios for their further development – the expansion or narrowing in their social functions, the preservation or loss of a language by a certain linguistic community. Should there be a danger of the disappearance of a language, special attention should be paid to its scientific description, recording its texts, in order to preserve this language for the world culture.

Keywords: linguistic community, areas of communication, demographic power of a language, communicative power of a language